Kalshi-Backed Poll Says 90% of Voters Support Prediction Markets

According to a Kalshi-commissioned survey by Axis, 89% of American voters support prediction markets in their current form, with 54% stating that even if they don't engage in that type of investing or wagering, they "strongly" believe Americans should have the freedom to make their own decisions. These results are among the least surprising of any kind.

Between September 18 and September 23, 1,219 votes in the US were queried by Axis. Given that the survey was supported by one of the most well-known prediction market companies, it is reasonable for skeptics to argue that the results were expected to be positive for the sector.

Given the numerous state-level legal issues Kalshi is dealing with, it should come as no surprise that a sizable majority of respondents think event contract exchanges ought to be subject to federal regulation.

"Voters nearly universally view the purchase of stocks, mutual funds and participation in commodities markets as a ‘financial investment’ (89%) over viewing these activities as ‘gambling’ (11%),” notes Kashi.  “Because of this belief, voters overwhelmingly say ‘Federal Government Regulators’ should regulate these activities (79%) rather than ‘State Gaming Commissions’ (21%).”

Kalshi recently faced a class-action lawsuit in New York, where the plaintiff claims the site is comparable to illicit gambling. Lawmakers joined the chorus after the New York State Gaming Commission (NYGC) wrote Kalshi a letter on October 24 accusing the company of providing an illegal form of gambling.

Among other things, a newly written Albany bill aims to prohibit Kalshi from providing financial and sports derivatives.

According to a Kalshi poll, voters perceive differences.

Prediction market volumes have skyrocketed since the 2025 football season began as firms like Kalshi increased the number of sports event contracts they offered. That has not only sparked discussion over how much of the prediction market's revenue comes from sports on social media, but it has also led some to claim that prediction markets are actually sportsbooks.

With 60% of respondents in the Axis survey stating that coming out with yes/no derivatives requires analysis comparable to that done in securities selection — something they believe is lacking in "chance-based gambling" — Kalshi claims that voters perceive a clear distinction between event contracts and typical sports wagers.

“Prediction markets are aggregating information from thousands of individuals to produce a real-time probability of a sports outcome and should be considered analysis more than gambling (63%),” according to the poll. “Sports prediction markets create a public good by producing forecasts useful to the media, leagues, and owners” (59%).

According to the survey, two-thirds of participants see state initiatives to control prediction markets as attempts to increase tax revenue and stifle innovation. Additionally, respondents think that the people who would suffer the most from additional regulations would be investors and bettors.

A Survey Is Released Amid Declining Attitudes Toward Sports Betting

The question of whether prediction markets are sportsbooks is unlikely to be resolved in the near future, but it is evident (probably by coincidence) that the Kalshi survey comes at a time when opinions about sports betting are becoming more pessimistic. This sentiment is probably fueled by a recent wave of scandals in US professional sports.

According to a recent YouGov survey, 31% of Americans who identify as sports bettors and 44% of Americans think legalized wagering is hurting sports. Only 24% of wagerers and 9% of people in general hold this view.

“Combining respondents who said often, sometimes, or rarely, more than four-fifths of US sports bettors believe athletes alter how they play because of sports betting,” notes YouGov. “This suggests that those more closely involved with sports betting have a higher level of skepticism about the integrity of professional sports.”